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OK0NAG > SOLAR 22.12.11 15:44l 103 Lines 3628 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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_____________________________________________________________________
Solar-activity forecast for the period Dec 23 - 29, 2011
Activity level: mostly low
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 120-150 f.u.
Flares: weak (5-15/day), middle (0-1/period
Relative sunspot number: in the range 50-90
Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Dec 23 to Dec 29, 2011
quiet: Dec 23, 28 and 29
quiet to unsettled: Dec 24 and 27
unsettled: 0
unsettled to active: Dec 26
active: Dec 25
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
geomagnetic field was quiet from Dec 15 to 20,
quiet to unsettled on Dec 21.
RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept,
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation
Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
quiet: Dec 25, Jan 2 - 4, 10 - 15
mostly quiet: Dec 23, 29, Jan 1, 5, 9
quiet to unsettled: Dec 24, 28, Jan 17
quiet to active: Dec 26, 30 - 31, Jan 7, 18
quiet to minor storm: -
quiet to major storm: -
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: Dec 27, Jan 6, 8, 16
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Survey: quiet: Dec 13 - 18
mostly quiet: Dec 19 - 20
quiet to unsettled: Dec 21
quiet to active: -
quiet to minor storm: -
quiet to major storm: -
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Notices:
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
Dec 23, 26, 28. 30, Jan (6,) 8, 14, (15 - 16).
Standard error of our forecasting method should be one day since
fourth day, but usually slightly better for day one
to three.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
activity enhancements depending on previous development
on the Sun.
F. K. Janda (OK1HH), Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
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