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OK0NAG > SOLAR    08.12.11 13:36l 100 Lines 3573 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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_____________________________________________________________________

Solar-activity forecast for the period Dec 9 -15, 2011

Activity level: very low to low
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 120-145 f.u.
Flares: weak (3-12/day)
Relative sunspot number: in the range 80-135 

Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague)
_____________________________________________________________________

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Dec 9 to Dec 15, 2011


quiet: Dec 9 to 11 and 13 to 15
quiet to unsettled: Dec 12
unsettled: 0
active: 0
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary: 
          geomagnetic field was quiet on Dec 1, 2 and 
          from 4 to 7, unsettled on Dec 3.  


RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept, 
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.cz 
_____________________________________________________________________

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation

Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
         quiet: Dec 8 - 12, 14, 16 - 18, 23, Jan 2 - 4
         mostly quiet: Dec 25, 29
         quiet to unsettled: Dec 20 - 21, 24, 28, Jan 1
         quiet to active: Dec 22, 27
         quiet to minor storm: Dec 19, 26, 30 - 31
         quiet to major storm: -
         quiet to severe storm: -
         mostly unsettled: Dec 13, 15
         unsettled to active: -
         unsettled to minor storm: -
         minor to major storm: -

Survey:  quiet: Dec 6 - 7
         mostly quiet: Dec 4 - 5
         quiet to unsettled: Dec 1
         quiet to active: Dec 2 - 3
         quiet to minor storm: -
         quiet to major storm: -
         quiet to severe storm: -
         mostly unsettled: Nov 30
         unsettled to active: -
         unsettled to minor storm: -
         minor to major storm: -

   Notices:
        High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
        changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
        Dec 9 - 10, 13, 18, 20, 26, 28. 30, 31, Jan 1.
        Standard error of our forecasting method should be one day since

        fourth day, but usually slightly better for day one to three.
        Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
        activity enhancements depending on previous development
        on the Sun.

F. K. Janda (OK1HH), Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
_____________________________________________________________________





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