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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.12.11 12:04l 107 Lines 4039 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: Monthly Ri Report
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
November 2011 : 96.7 (ninety-six point seven)
Maximum : 123 on 9 // Minimum : 68 on 28
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for November 2011 :
1.. 87 6..101 11..113 16.. 87 21.. 88 26.. 91
2.. 89 7..120 12..109 17.. 84 22.. 96 27.. 86
3.. 87 8..119 13..113 18.. 92 23.. 99 28.. 68
4.. 69 9..123 14..114 19.. 89 24.. 91 29.. 94
5.. 79 10..118 15.. 98 20.. 95 25..110 30.. 92
70 cooperating stations on December 1, 20 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for May 2011 : 47.6 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2011 Jun 54 50 2011 Dec 79 79 2012 Jun 119 107
Jul 59 54 2012 Jan 85 83 Jul 125 109
Aug 61 59 Feb 90 88 Aug 131 111
Sep 66 64 Mar 97 93 Sep 137 112
Oct 70 69 Apr 105 98 Oct 142 113
Nov 74 74 May 112 103 Nov 146 113
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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