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OK0NAG > SOLAR 24.11.11 15:32l 104 Lines 3583 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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_____________________________________________________________________
Solar-activity forecast for the period Nov 25 - Dec 1, 2011
Activity level: very low to low
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 130-155 f.u.
Flares: weak (5-15/day)
Relative sunspot number: in the range 110-150
Astronomical institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague)
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Nov 25 to Dec 1, 2011
quiet: Nov 30 and Dec 1
quiet to unsettled: Nov 27 to 29
unsettled: Nov 25
active: Nov 26
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
geomagnetic field was quiet from Nov 16 to 21,
quiet to unsettled on Nov 22 and 23.
RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept,
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation
Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
quiet: Nov 25 - 26, 30, Dec 1 - 2, 4 - 7, 9, 11 - 12, 14 - 18
mostly quiet: Nov 27, 29, Dec 19
quiet to unsettled: Dec 8, 10
quiet to active: Dec 3, 13, 21
quiet to minor storm: Dec 20
quiet to major storm: Nov 28
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Survey: quiet: Nov 16 - 20
mostly quiet: Nov 23
quiet to unsettled: Nov 22
quiet to active: -
quiet to minor storm: Nov 21
quiet to major storm: -
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Notices:
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
Nov 27, 29, Dec 1 - 2, 7, 11 - 13, 19 - 20.
Standard error of our forecasting method should be one day since
fourth day, but usually slightly better for day one to three.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
activity enhancements depending on previous development
on the Sun.
F. K. Janda (OK1HH), Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
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