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OK0NAG > SOLAR    23.11.11 23:03l 245 Lines 8172 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Nov 23 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z

to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest flare was a C2

at 23/1328Z from Region 1346 (S15W82).  Region 1356 (N15E28) decayed

slightly in area in its intermediate spots.  Three CMEs were

observed during the summary period.  The first was associated with a

filament eruption in the northwestern quadrant first observed in

SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 22/1957Z.  The second was first seen in

SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 23/0048Z which was possibly associated with

the same filament eruption.  The third was first seen in SOHO/LASCO

C2 imagery at 23/0924Z which was associated with a high latitude

backside event.  Further analysis of the 22/1957Z CME is ongoing to

determine the possibility of a glancing blow.  The two subsequent

CMEs are not expected to be geoeffective.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

with a chance for M-class activity.  An isolated M-class flare is

possible from Region 1356.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (24 - 26

November).

III.  Event Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov

Class M    30/30/30

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           23 Nov 140

Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov  145/145/145

90 Day Mean        23 Nov 139

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  007/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov  005/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  004/005-004/005-004/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                04/04/04

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    00/00/00

B.  High Latitudes

Active                14/14/14

Minor storm           12/12/12

Major-severe storm    06/06/06

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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