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OK0NAG > SOLAR 18.11.11 15:01l 153 Lines 5875 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Nov 18 1257 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU322
UGEOA 30512 11118 1232/ 9930/
11182 20182 30182
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 18 Nov 2011 until 20 Nov
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Nov 2011 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Nov 2011 10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Nov 2011 10CM FLUX: 157 / AP: 008
COMMENT: Flaring at (low) C-level continued during the past 24h, with
the flares mainly originating from NOAA AR 11353 (cat 52), NOAA AR 11354
(cat 51) and NOAA AR 1352 (cat 50) on the east solar limb. These regions
are the most active ones on the solar disk at the moment and will
produce more C-flares and possibly an M-flare in the coming days. LASCO
images show a CME yesterday at 18:12 UT, possibly linked to a filament
eruption that was observed around 15:19 UT in SDO/AIA 304 data. A
partial halo CME was observed by STEREOB/COR2 at 01:25 UT this morning,
after a long data gap. SOHO/LASCO data show this fast eruption on the
east limb around 20:36 UT yesterday. The source region seems to be NOAA
AR 11353 (cat 52) on the east limb which produced a C2.4 flare with peak
time 20:11 UT. A glancing blow from this CME might reach earth late on
November 19th (a data gap in STEREOA images makes it difficult to
confirm). A third CME was observed by LASCO on the northwest limb at
23:24 (after a data gap) and can be linked to a plasma eruption seen in
PROBA2/SWAP data around 22:30 UT in NOAA AR 1343 (Cat 36). The last CME
that LASCO observed was at 06:12 UT this morning on the northwest limb.
Due to a data gap, it is difficult to establish its source region, but
there was a C2.7 flare in NOAA AR 1343 (Cat 36) at 02:20 and an eruption
seen in SWAP data around 02:58.
The solar wind speed is moderate at 360 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field is low and positive. Geomagnetic conditions are currently
quiet but could rise to unsettled levels in case the glancing blow from
the CME on November 14th arrives. More unsettled to active conditions
could occur tomorrow late as a consequence of the second CME described
above.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 090, BASED ON 08 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 11118 1232/ 17///
1//// 21480 3004/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 11118 1232/ 18/08 18110
10034 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 48818 00000
10036 2//// 3//// 472// 50020 60001 47028 00000
10045 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 41309 00000
10046 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50060 60011 30715 04000
10047 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60007 20622 00000
10048 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50050 60008 12427 03100
10050 2//// 3//// 4522/ 50080 60008 24822 17000
10051 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50070 60010 26314 16100
10052 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50020 60003 16909 03000
10053 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60002 18616 16100
99999
USSPS 32404 17087 09932 32007 46609 21404 33012 47816 2/801 34007
45528 2/801 36005 20618 21304 37001 40108 1/801 40008 13927 21403
42018 26523 21504 44003 18508 2/801
USSPS 21305 17204 10642 50003 48008 01202 53005 46428 2/801 59002
40808 01202 57010 20118 21303 61007 13127 21405 65018 25824 21306
66004 17508 0/101 67013 27515 11306
USSPS 81202 18000 11222 19003 47708 0/101 21007 46229 2/801 26001
41008 2/801 25008 30317 21307 29007 13026 21407 32004 17007 2/801
33030 26815 21409 31024 25424 21505
USSPS 31405 18085 15342 34001 48818 0/101 36002 47028 2/901 45001
41309 0/102 46006 30715 22311 47002 20622 01207 48005 12427 24408
50008 24822 24508 51007 26314 24410 52002 16909 21303 53001 18616
01202
UMAGF 30503 11118 1004/ 17067 1/008 21111 32111
UMAGF 31523 11118 ///// 1700/ 1/004 21111 32121
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