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OK0NAG > SOLAR 12.11.11 14:59l 122 Lines 4755 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Nov 12 1254 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU316
UGEOA 30512 11112 1235/ 9930/
11122 21122 30122
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 12 Nov 2011 until 14 Nov
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Nov 2011 10CM FLUX: 172 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Nov 2011 10CM FLUX: 172 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Nov 2011 10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Catania sunspot groups 31 and 38 (NOAA ARs 1339 and 1344
respectively) are expected to produce flaring activity on the C-level,
with a small chance for an M-class flare. The C4.2 flare peaking at
07:05 UT yesterday in the Catania sunspot group 38 (NOAA AR 1344) was
associated with a weak partial halo CME first seen in the LASCO C2 field
of view at 07:12 UT. Due to the weakness of the halo and its moderate
speed (around 700 km/s), we expect at most a weak shock to arrive at the
Earth on November 14, without significant geomagnetic consequences. The
Earth is currently inside a post-shock solar wind flow associated with
the halo CME observed on November 9. Due to the gap in the ACE data, it
is currently difficult to evaluate the possibility of occurrence of a
geomagnetic storm. However, given moderate values of the solar wind
speed (around 460 km/s) and interplanetary magnetic field magnitude
(around 9 nT), we expect active geomagnetic conditions (K = 4), with
minor storm conditions (K = 5) possible but unlikely.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 103, BASED ON 08 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 11112 1235/ 11///
10184 21740 3003/ 4//// 80009 91240
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 11112 1235/ 11/07 12109
10030 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50110 60006 35713 00000
10031 2//// 3//// 4532/ 50500 60045 43817 17100
10033 2//// 3//// 472// 50070 60001 30808 00000
10034 2//// 3//// 472// 50150 60003 10318 01000
10035 2//// 3//// 4331/ 50110 60010 11111 01000
10036 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50120 60002 11928 00000
10038 2//// 3//// 4432/ 50100 60014 33517 16100
10040 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50070 60009 32023 00000
10041 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 11121 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 11126 12132 26009 36013 31402 27042 44219 57513 30008
31108 2/801 31007 33918 24412 32006 10709 24307 33013 40217 2/802
34012 11828 2/801 35006 32326 21403
USSPS 81202 12011 15422 13065 44818 37426 20014 40815 2/802 21014
11227 2/801 19009 40111 21303 14012 36514 11306 22020 34519 14422
24007 32826 11402 18008 31709 2/801 25010 27618 2/801
UMAGF 30503 11112 1004/ 11060 1/005 21210 31000
UMAGF 31523 11112 ///// 1100/ 1/003 21212 31010
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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