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OK0NAG > SOLAR 11.11.11 00:03l 247 Lines 8200 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1320960945
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class flares were
observed. Region 1339 (N19W33) produced the largest flare of the
day, a C6/1f at 10/1831Z. Region 1339 showed gradual intermediate
and trailer spot decay during the period and was classified as an
Fkc/beta-gamma. Minor spot growth was noted in Regions 1341
(N08E14), 1344 (S19W31), and 1345 (S25W16). No new regions were
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (11 - 13 November) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1339. There will also be a slight chance for a
major flare (M5 or above) from Region 1339 during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (11 November).
Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels
on day 2 (12 November) due to a CME arrival, associated with a halo
CME observed on 09 November. Activity is expected to decrease to
unsettled to active levels on day 3 (13 November) as CME effects
gradually subside.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 179
Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 180/175/175
90 Day Mean 10 Nov 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 010/010-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/15
Minor storm 01/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/30/20
Minor storm 01/25/15
Major-severe storm 01/10/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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