| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 10.11.11 14:46l 107 Lines 3806 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : ABLOK0NAG00F
Read: GUEST
Subj: Weekly Forecasts Bulletin
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0PTU<OK0NAG
Sent: 111110/1244z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:42:07 +0100 (CET)
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.20
X-asg-debug-id: 1320927503-03b3480de9f5d80001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.20 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=SORTED_RECIPS
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -1.853
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.79855Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------1.20 SORTED_RECIPS Recipient list is sorted by address
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Weekly Forecasts Bulletin
X-asg-orig-subj: Weekly Forecasts Bulletin
X-barracuda-start-time: 1320927503
_____________________________________________________________________
Solar-activity forecasts for the period Nov 11 - 17, 2011
Activity level: mostly low to moderate
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 150-180 f.u.
Flares: weak (numerous), middle (0-4/period)
Relative sunspot number: in the range 130-180
Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague)
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Nov 11 to Nov 17, 2011
quiet: Nov 14 to 17
quiet to unsettled: Nov 11 and 13
unsettled: 0
unsettled to active: Nov 12
active: 0
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
geomagnetic field was quiet from Nov 3 to 9.
RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept,
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.z
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation
Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
quiet: Nov 15 - 16, 19, 30, Dec 1, 4
mostly quiet: Nov 12, 17, 24, 28 - 29, Dec 2, 5
quiet to unsettled: Nov 13, 18, 23, 25, 27, Dec 3, 6 - 7
quiet to active: Nov 14, 20, 22, 26
quiet to minor storm: Nov 21
quiet to major storm: -
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Survey: quiet: Oct 26 - 29, Nov 3 - 5, 9
mostly quiet: Nov 6 - 8
quiet to unsettled: -
quiet to active: Oct 30 - 31, Nov 2
quiet to minor storm: Nov 1
quiet to major storm: -
quiet to severe storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Notices:
The current configuration changes active regions on the sun greatly
reduces the reliability of predictions! This is especially true
for
the prediction of major disturbances.
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
Nov 12 - 14, 16, 21, 23, 27, 29, Dec 2.
Standard error of our forecasting method should be one day since
fourth day, but usually slightly better for day one to three.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
activity enhancements depending on previous development on the
Sun.
F. K. Janda (OK1HH), Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
