| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 09.11.11 23:06l 259 Lines 8717 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : 9BLOK0NAG00O
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0PTU<OK0NAG
Sent: 111109/2204z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 9 Nov 2011 22:04:22 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1320874700-03b3480de9e3b20001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 09 Nov 2011 22:04:20.0802 (UTC) FILETIME=[886AEA20:01CC9F2B]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.195
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.79797Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1320874700
----boundary_415158_3174496a-1421-4ecb-a5da-e2eda2efce58
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. A long duration M1 flare was observed at 09/1335Z.
Associated with this event were a Type II radio sweep with an
estimated shock velocity of 750 km/s and a eruptive filament channel
with a possible Earth directed CME. This filament channel was
located between Region 1342 (N17E22) and Region 1343 (N27E37) in the
Northeast quadrant of the visible disk. Imagery is still coming in
at the time of this report, but STEREO B and SDO/AIA imagery do
indicate a CME liftoff. Region 1339 (N21W19) has some simpliciation
in its magnetic structure but still remains classified as a
beta-gamma. New Region 1345 (S24W01) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (10-12 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (10 November). An increase
to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 2 (11 November) as
the effects of a CME, from 08 November, are forecast. An increase to
unsettled to active conditions on day 3 (12 November) is expected,
as the CME, associated with today's M1 flare, is expected to become
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 180
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 180/180/175
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 005/005-010/010-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/25/30
Minor storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/35
Minor storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_415158_3174496a-1421-4ecb-a5da-e2eda2efce58
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_415158_3174496a-1421-4ecb-a5da-e2eda2efce58--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
