| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 09.11.11 00:54l 279 Lines 9418 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : 8BLOK0NAG00O
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0PTU<OK0NAG
Sent: 111108/2352z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 8 Nov 2011 23:52:43 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1320794789-03b3480de9a5a70001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 08 Nov 2011 23:52:42.0433 (UTC) FILETIME=[81475310:01CC9E71]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.196
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.79718Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1320794789
----boundary_377819_5f9fd1d6-d257-4f5f-8894-dd4294b21030
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 08 2347 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2011
* * * * * * * * * * Corrected Copy * * * * * * * * * *
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1339 (N19W08) produced a
few low-level C-class events during the period. The region continued
to exhibit slow decay, both in area and spot count, as well as
magnetic complexity losing its Delta configuration. The other large
region on the disk, Region 1338 (S14W25) also is in slow decay, both
in area and magnetic complexity, and is now classified as a Beta
group. New region 1344 (S22W07) emerged on the disk early in the
period as a simple uni-polar spot group. Early in the period, a
filament eruption along a 25 degree channel was observed in SDO/AIA
imagery beginning at about 07/2232Z. LASCO C2 imagery first observed
a CME lifting off the NW limb at 07/2348Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (09 - 11 November) with a slight chance
for high activity (M5 or greater) from Region 1339. There is also a
slight chance for a proton flare from this region during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
high latitude minor storm periods. Solar wind speeds generally were
below 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field fluctuated between +/- 7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during day one and two of the period
(09 - 10 November). By day three (11 November), the field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated high
latitude active periods, as glancing blow effects from the 07
November CME are felt.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 181
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 180/180/175
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 004/005-004/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/13
Minor storm 02/02/03
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/16
Minor storm 13/13/20
Major-severe storm 08/08/14
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_377819_5f9fd1d6-d257-4f5f-8894-dd4294b21030
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_377819_5f9fd1d6-d257-4f5f-8894-dd4294b21030--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
