| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 23.10.11 23:03l 243 Lines 8057 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : NALOK0NAG010
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 111023/2202z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 23 Oct 2011 22:01:33 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1319405866-03b348676d11314e0001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 23 Oct 2011 22:01:39.0048 (UTC) FILETIME=[56FB7680:01CC91CF]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.205
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.78200Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1319405866
----boundary_35259_b88910aa-4b8b-47cf-8a7d-cfc8f14b14da
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1324 (N12W00) produced a
C2 X-ray flare at 23/1147Z as well as a few other optical subflares.
The region continues to slowly decay. New Region 1331 (N11W60)
emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare. Regions 1324
(N12W00) and 1330 (N08E60) are the most likely source of flare
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A greater than 10 MeV proton event
began at 23/1500Z. So far the observed peak flux was 13 pfu at
23/1535Z. The source of the event is believed to be yesterday's
long-duration M1 flare at 22/1110Z in Region 1314 (N29, L=053).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected be mostly quiet becoming quiet to unsettled with a chance
of active periods on 25 October. This activity is expected in
response to the arrival of a CME that occurred at 22/0058Z in
association with an eruptive filament. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to end by 24 October.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 156
Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 150/145/140
90 Day Mean 23 Oct 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 005/005-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/30
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/40/40
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_35259_b88910aa-4b8b-47cf-8a7d-cfc8f14b14da
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_35259_b88910aa-4b8b-47cf-8a7d-cfc8f14b14da--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
