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OK0NAG > SOLAR 20.10.11 14:23l 99 Lines 3587 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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_____________________________________________________________________
Solar-activity forecast for the period Oct 21 - 27, 2011
Activity level: mostly low to moderate
Radio flux(10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the rage 135-170 f.u.
Flares: weak (numerous), middle (1-6/period)
Relative sunspot number: in the range 140-170
Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague)
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Oct 21 to Oct 27, 2011
quiet: Oct 21 to 23 and Oct 25 to 27
quiet to unsettled: Oct 24
unsettled: 0
active: 0
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
geomagnetic field was quiet on Oct 13, 14 and from Oct 17 to 19,
quiet to unsettled on Oct 15 and 16.
RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept,
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation
Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
quiet: Oct 21, 30 - 31, Nov 1, 3, 7, 9 - 10, 15 - 16
mostly quiet: Nov 2, 8
quiet to unsettled: Oct 26, 28, Nov 6, 14
quiet to active: Oct 22, 27, 29, Nov 4, 11
quiet to minor storm: Nov 5
quiet to major storm: -
mostly unsettled: Nov 12 - 13
unsettled to active: Oct 24 - 25
unsettled to minor storm: Oct 23
minor to major storm: -
Survey: quiet: Oct 13 - 14, 18 - 19
mostly quiet: Oct 12
quiet to unsettled: Oct 16 - 17
quiet to active: Oct 15
quiet to minor storm: -
quiet to major storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Notices:
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
Oct (21,) 22, (24,) 25, 27 - 28, 31, Nov 1, 7, 10 - 11.
Standard error of our forecasting method should be one day since
fourth day, but usually slightly better for day one to three.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
activity enhancements depending on previous development
on the Sun.
F. K. Janda (OK1HH), Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
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