| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 17.10.11 02:00l 250 Lines 8398 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : GALOK0NAG00P
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK0PHL<OK0PCC<OM0PBC<OK0PPL<OK0NAG
Sent: 111016/2358z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 16 Oct 2011 23:58:10 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1318808103-03b348676d1080d90001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 16 Oct 2011 23:58:09.0253 (UTC) FILETIME=[7493D950:01CC8C5F]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.209
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.77545Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1318808103
----boundary_213379_c64db2b9-ee04-4be3-9bc6-9d34684f77ad
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 16 2355 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::::
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1319 (N11W13) produced
the most activity during the period, including a C6 x-ray event at
16/1514Z as well as numerous other low level C-class events. Region
1317 (S26E01) produced a slow rise C1/Sf flare at 16/1355Z with
associated type II and type IV radio sweeps shortly after. The
estimated Type II speed was 618 km/s. No partial or full halo
signature indicating an Earth directed CME has been observed by SOHO
LASCO, nor was a feature ascertainable on STEREO coronagraph imagery
at the time of this report. Please note that there was an error on
the location of Region 1321 on the Solar Region Summary issued at 0030Z
on 16 October. The actual location of Region 1321 was S14E50.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class flare over the next 3 days (17-19
October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled
period from 16/03-06Z due to weak CH HSS effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (17-19 October) as
weak CH HSS effects continue to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 151
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_213379_c64db2b9-ee04-4be3-9bc6-9d34684f77ad
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_213379_c64db2b9-ee04-4be3-9bc6-9d34684f77ad--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
