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OK0NAG > SOLAR 06.10.11 11:09l 109 Lines 3456 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: solar & geomagnetic activity forecast
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Subject: solar & geomagnetic activity forecast
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Solar-activity forecast for the period 0ct 7 - 13, 2011
Activity level: very low to low
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 110-135 f.u.
Flares: weak (1-10/day), middle (0-2/period)
Relative sunspot number: in the range 70-120
Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague)
_________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Oct 7 to Oct 13, 2011
quiet: Oct 11, 12 and 13
quiet to unsettled: Oct 7 and 8
unsettled: Oct 9 and 10
active: 0
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary: geomagnetic field was quiet on
Oct 3 and 4, quiet to unsettled on Sep 30, unsettled on Oct 1, 2
and 5, unsettled to active on Sep 29.
RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept,
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.cz
_________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation
Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
quiet: Oct 10 - 11, 15 - 18, 20 - 21, 29 - 30
mostly quiet: Oct 9, 14, 19
quiet to unsettled: Oct 12, 27
quiet to active: Oct 8, 25, 31
quiet to minor storm: Oct 13, 28
quiet to major storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: Oct 7, 24, 26
unsettled to minor storm: Oct 22 - 23
minor to major storm: -
Survey: quiet: -
mostly quiet: Oct 3 - 4
quiet to unsettled: Sep 30, Oct 2
quiet to active: Oct 1, 5
quiet to minor storm: -
quiet to major storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: Sep 27 - 28
minor to major storm: Sep 29
Notices:
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
Oct (12,) 20, 27 - 28, 31.
Standard error of our forecasting method should be one day since
fourth day, but usually slightly better for day one to three.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
activity enhancements depending on previous development
on the Sun.
F. K. Janda (OK1HH)
Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
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