| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 02.10.11 23:05l 285 Lines 9540 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : 2ALOK0NAG00N
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0PTU<OK0NAG
Sent: 111002/2203z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 2 Oct 2011 22:03:37 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1317591748-03b348676dd9b6b0001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 02 Oct 2011 22:03:43.0999 (UTC) FILETIME=[26C8B8F0:01CC814F]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.217
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.76230Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1317591748
----boundary_902005_76dd4261-7a13-4cb7-b8f1-634aaad6248b
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Regions 1302 (N16W55) and
1305 (N12W26) both produced M-class events during the past 24 hours.
The largest was an M3/1n from Region 1305 at 02/0050Z that was
associated with an Earth-directed CME visible in STEREO imagery with
an estimated speed of 532 km/s. Region 1302 decreased significantly
in area but maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
Region 1305 developed some intermediate spots but held steady in
area and is still considered to have a beta-gamma magnetic class.
Region 1309 (N23E67) was numbered yesterday and is a Dso type group
with a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a slight chance for X-class activity for the next
three days (03-05 October) due to flare potential from Regions 1302
and 1305.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period during the 02/0900-1200Z synoptic period as measured by the
Boulder magnetometer. The increase in activity was due to effects
from a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (03-04 October) as
effects from the CH HSS subside. Day three (05 October) is expected
to begin with quiet to unsettled conditions. A chance for active
conditions and a slight chance for isolated minor storm periods is
expected later in the day due to effects from the combination of the
CMEs observed on 30 September and 01 October.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 20/20/15
Proton 15/15/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 131
Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 02 Oct 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 012/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 005/005-005/005-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/40
Minor storm 05/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/45
Minor storm 05/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_902005_76dd4261-7a13-4cb7-b8f1-634aaad6248b
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_902005_76dd4261-7a13-4cb7-b8f1-634aaad6248b--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
