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OK0NAG > SOLAR 02.10.11 14:57l 125 Lines 4947 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Oct 02 1254 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU275
UGEOA 30512 11002 1235/ 9930/
12022 22022 30022
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 02 Oct 2011 until 04 Oct
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Oct 2011 10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Oct 2011 10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Oct 2011 10CM FLUX: 146 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate, with an M3.9 flare at 00:40UT
Oct.2 from active region Catania#85 (NOAA1305). For the coming two days,
we expect a similar rate of C flares with an occasional M flare, most
probably from AR1305. Another active region is passing the North East
limb. As it was the probable source of several backside CMEs over the
last few days, including the big limb CME of Oct.1 21:36UT, it may soon
contribute to a new increase of solar activity. The solar wind has
slowed further down to 500km/s, which leads to quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic conditions. The geomagnetic activity is expected to decline
further over the coming hours. However, several CMEs associated with the
disk-center M flares of Sept.30, Oct.1 and Oct.2, which had a
corresponding Type II radio signature (shock), are on their way to the
Earth. Starting tomorrow, Oct.3, the first one could trigger active to
minor storm geomagnetic conditions.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 081, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 11002 1235/ 01///
10162 21371 3019/ 4//// 80308 90940
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
01 0856 0959 1017 N10W06 M1.2 1N 180 IV/2,V/3,II/1
85 1305
02 0037 0050 0059 N09W12 M3.9 1N 85
1305
END
UGEOR 30512 11002 1235/ 01/06 02108
10082 2//// 3//// 4652/ 50630 60038 43413 18310
10085 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50180 60023 40212 28510
10086 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50060 60008 11613 00000
10087 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 14114 02000
10088 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50020 60004 16017 03000
10089 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 45023 00000
10090 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 21021 00000
10091 2//// 3//// 471// 50020 60002 26624 01000
99999
USSPS 32404 01088 08732 85048 43514 51618 89014 40312 21413 90002
11615 2/801 91003 14515 11504 92002 26625 2/801
USSPS 21305 01187 10042 98070 44015 57616 02033 40812 47313 03006
11217 21302 04005 14016 01206 05002 26014 0/101 06013 18615 21402
USSPS 81202 01060 08822 81002 11814 0/101 82003 15013 21404 83004
26526 2/801 76020 40113 21416 75070 43016 57616
USSPS 81202 02040 09622 81002 10615 0/101 82004 13515 21407 83004
25525 2/801 80021 41412 21409 76054 44218 57616 84006 17823 21402
UMAGF 30503 11002 1004/ 01063 1/016 22222 33312
UMAGF 31523 11002 ///// 0100/ 1/019 25422 33333
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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