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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.10.11 10:42l 107 Lines 4049 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: Monthly Ri Report
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
September 2011 : 78.0 (seventy-eight point zero)
Maximum : 124 on 15, 16 // Minimum : 35 on 8
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for September 2011 :
1.. 85 6.. 58 11.. 61 16..124 21.. 70 26.. 73
2.. 88 7.. 47 12.. 90 17..104 22.. 71 27.. 67
3.. 91 8.. 35 13.. 94 18.. 93 23.. 59 28.. 71
4.. 68 9.. 47 14..110 19.. 92 24.. 75 29.. 83
5.. 74 10.. 52 15..124 20.. 80 25.. 79 30.. 75
74 cooperating stations on October 1, 10 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for March 2011 : 36.9 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2011 Apr 40 40 2011 Oct 68 70 2012 Apr 104 102
May 45 45 Nov 73 76 May 112 105
Jun 49 49 Dec 78 81 Jun 120 107
Jul 54 54 2012 Jan 83 86 Jul 127 109
Aug 59 59 Feb 89 91 Aug 134 111
Sep 63 65 Mar 96 97 Sep 140 112
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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