|
OK0NAG > SOLAR 29.09.11 23:02l 277 Lines 9241 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : T9LOK0NAG00R
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0PTU<OK0NAG
Sent: 110929/2201z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 29 Sep 2011 22:01:29 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1317332441-03b348676dd52830001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 29 Sep 2011 22:01:31.0890 (UTC) FILETIME=[58CD3D20:01CC7EF3]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.218
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.75950Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1317332441
----boundary_839000_2807ec26-3179-450d-a25c-783fa1f2d1c2
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been low for the past 24 hours.
Region 1305 (N13E16) has grown in aerial coverage and is now
considered a Cso-type spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. The region produced a C1 event at 29/1023Z. Region
1302 (N13W16) produced a long duration C2/Sf at 29/1247Z. A Type II
Radio Sweep with an estimated speed of 608 km/s was associated with
this event. It is difficult to see in STEREO COR2 imagery but does
appear to be Earth directed with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of
628 km/s. Further analysis will be done as LASCO imagery becomes
available.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (30 September - 02 October) with a chance
for isolated M-class and X-class events mainly from Region 1302.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled with isolated minor to
major storm levels observed between 29/0000-0600Z due to
substorming. Solar wind speeds jumped slightly to 600 km/s, in
conjunction with an increase in temperature and density around
29/0030Z. Bt reached +13 nT and Bz dipped south with a maximum
deviation of -10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods early on day one (30 September) due to residual effects from
the CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (01
October) due to the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (02
October).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 137
Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 29 Sep 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 013/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 010/012-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/10/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_839000_2807ec26-3179-450d-a25c-783fa1f2d1c2
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_839000_2807ec26-3179-450d-a25c-783fa1f2d1c2--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |