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OK0NAG > SOLAR 29.09.11 14:38l 100 Lines 3569 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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_____________________________________________________________________
Solar-activity forecast for the period Sep 30 - Oct 6, 2011
Activity level: very low to moderate
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a decrease in the range 135-100 f.u.
Flares: weak (5-15/day), middle (1-4/period)
Relative sunspot number: in the range 110-60
Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague)
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Sep 30 to Oct 6, 2011
quiet: Oct 4 to 6
quiet to unsettled: Oct 1 to 3
unsettled: Sep 30
active: 0
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
geomagnetic field was quiet from Sep 22 to 25,
unsettled on Sep 28, active on Sep 27, minor
storm on Sep 26.
RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept,
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation
Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
quiet: Oct 3 - 4, 11, 15 - 17, 19 - 21
mostly quiet: Oct 2, 10, 18
quiet to unsettled: -
quiet to active: Oct 13
quiet to minor storm: Oct 9, 22
quiet to major storm: -
mostly unsettled: Sep 30, Oct 1
unsettled to active: Oct 7 - 8, 14, 24
unsettled to minor storm: Oct 6, 12, 25
minor to major storm: Oct 5, 23
Survey: quiet: Sep 19 - 21, 23 - 25
mostly quiet: Sep 22
quiet to unsettled: -
quiet to active: -
quiet to minor storm: -
quiet to major storm: Sep 26
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: Sep 27 - 28
minor to major storm: -
Notices:
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
SOct 1 - 2, 5 - 6, (11 - 12,) 20.
Standard error of our forecasting method should be one day since
fourth day, but usually slightly better for day one to three.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
activity enhancements depending on previous development
on the Sun.
F. K. Janda (OK1HH), Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
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