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OK0NAG > SOLAR 27.09.11 23:06l 233 Lines 7675 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred
during the period from Region 1302 (N13E08). The largest of these
was a C6 flare at 27/2058Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a chance for M-class during the period (28-30 September). There
will also be a chance for an X-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. An isolated
period of major to severe storm levels were observed from
27/0000-0300Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event began at
23/2300Z, reached a maximum of 35.7 pfu at 26/1155Z, and ended at
27/0430Z. Wind speeds reached 704 km/s at 26/2150Z and decreased to
512 km/s at 27/1703Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28
September). Quiet levels are expected on days two and three (29-30
September).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 139
Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 27 Sep 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 020/067
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 020/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 008/015-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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