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OK0NAG > SOLAR 27.09.11 14:22l 121 Lines 4790 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Sep 27 1317 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU270
UGEOA 30512 10927 1302/ 9930/
12272 22272 30272
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 27 Sep 2011 until 29 Sep
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 011
COMMENT: Solar activity has decreased over the last 24hours. The GOES
X-ray flux has dropped below C level and the >10MeV proton flux has
decreased below event threshold. The main active region (Cat#82,
NOAA1302) is stable but has lost some magnetic complexity (Beta-gamma).
It produced only two M flares over the last 24 hours. Additional M
flares are probable, with still a potential for an X flare. The CME that
hit the Earth yesterday around 12:00UT triggered a major magnetic storm
during about 6 hours. The solar wind speed and IMF are decreasing now
and the geomagnetic field has become mostly unsettled. Geomagnetic
activity should become quiet to unsettled over the coming hours.
However, another semi-halo CME that left the Sun on Sept.24 may arrive
at Earth over the next 24 hours, causing active conditions or a minor
storm on Sept. 28. After that disturbance, the geomagnetic activity
should decrease to quiet levels.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 070, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10927 1302/ 26///
10140 21481 3035/ 4//// 80406 91090
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
26 0506 0508 0513 N13E34 M4.0 1B 360 IV/1
82 1302
26 1437 1446 1502 N14E30 M2.6 2B III/2
82 1302
END
UGEOR 30512 10927 1302/ 26/07 27106
10080 2//// 3//// 4622/ 50080 60022 41620 02000
10082 2//// 3//// 4643/ 50880 60042 13113 18421
10083 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 37929 00000
10084 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50060 60010 10312 02000
10085 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50050 60003 16412 01000
10086 2//// 3//// 472// 50010 60001 18213 00000
99999
USSPS 21305 26145 07232 97004 41716 21309 01002 40112 01204 98077
13014 57517 02010 16914 21302
USSPS 81202 27013 10622 75004 43218 21622 76110 12214 57627 79002
40713 21404 80007 15513 2/302 81003 17214 2/801
UMAGF 30503 10927 1004/ 26062 1/069 22246 36544
UMAGF 31523 10927 ///// 2600/ 1/035 22122 35665
UCMEO 93001 10926 1930/ 10924 61248 92118 0791/ 078// 333// 32079
10924 61212 81406 16012 11302 1112/ 99999 PLAIN UCMEO 93001 10926
1930/ 10924 61948 80306 0321/ 031// 223// 31065 10924 61909 81945
16012 11302 1112/ 99999 PLAIN
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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