| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 27.09.11 00:03l 289 Lines 9715 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : Q9LOK0NAG00Q
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0PTU<OK0NAG
Sent: 110926/2201z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 26 Sep 2011 22:01:34 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1317073275-03b348676dcfda70001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 26 Sep 2011 22:01:33.0453 (UTC) FILETIME=[DA7E7BD0:01CC7C97]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.22
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.75677Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1317073275
----boundary_731973_5c11e701-dccb-4e22-967b-bc97c127ff6d
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1302 (N13E23) produced the largest event of the
period, a M2 x-ray flare at 1446Z. Region 1301 (N17W23) and Region
1303 (S28W90) also produced several low level C-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate levels on day one (27 September). Low to moderate levels
are expected on day two (28 September) and predominantly low levels
are expected on day three (29 September). Region 1302 remains the
most active Region on the disk but has only produced one M-class
event over the past 24 hours.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at major storm levels for the past 24
hours. A CME, observed leaving the solar disk on 24 September,
arrived at Earth on 26/1237Z. Indicating the arrival of the CME, a
45 nT sudden impulse was observed by the Boulder magnetometer. As
the CME progressed, measurements by the ACE spacecraft showed the
total IMF reaching a peak of 33 nT, with the negative (Southward
Component, Bz) reaching a maximum of-31 nT. Solar wind speeds
increased from around 350 km/s to 650 km/s. During the CME passage,
both GOES 13 and GOES 15 spacecraft showed clear magnetopause
crossings. The greater than 10 MeV proton event, that began at
23/2255Z, reached up to 35.7 pfu at 26/1115Z, and continues to
remain above the 10 pfu threshold.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the next two days
(27-28 September) with a slight chance for minor storm levels, due
to the trailing effects of the latest CME and the possible arrival
of a second CME. A return to predominately quiet levels is expected
on day three (29 September).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M 80/40/30
Class X 40/10/05
Proton 99/30/10
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 148
Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 145/145/140
90 Day Mean 26 Sep 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 027/060
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 012/010-010/015-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/05
Minor storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/20/10
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_731973_5c11e701-dccb-4e22-967b-bc97c127ff6d
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_731973_5c11e701-dccb-4e22-967b-bc97c127ff6d--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
