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OK0NAG > SOLAR 23.09.11 13:11l 138 Lines 5424 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Sep 23 1207 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU266
UGEOA 30512 10923 1203/ 9930/
12232 20232 30232
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 23 Sep 2011 until 25 Sep
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 154 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 154 / AP: 017
COMMENT: Catania 82 (NOAA AR 1302) is the most active region on the
solar disk. This region was the source of the X flare yesterday and has
continued to produce C-flares, the largest one being a C9.6 flare
peaking at 00:33 UT. Also Catania 72 (NOAA AR 1295) remains very active
with numerous C-flares yesterday and today. At 01:59 UT today it
produced an M1.6 flare. No clear CME was associated to any of these
events. However, the CME that accompanied the X flare yesterday was a
large scale event. PROBA2/SWAP difference images show a global EUV wave.
STEREO A and B chronographs imaged a clear halo CME. SOHO/LASCO suffers
from a data gap, but also suggest a halo CME. Speed estimates based on
COR2 data lead to a CME speed between 620 (based on STEREO A) and 900
km/s (based on STEREO B). We expect the earth may receive a glancing
blow from this CME, probably in the morning of september 25. As a result
of this event, the GOES proton flux also started to rise, but the
measurements stayed just below the ~10MeV threshold. We can expect more
C- and possibly M-flares from regions Catania 72 (NOAA AR 1295, turning
over the west limb) and Catania 82 (NOAA AR 1302).
Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet. If the glancing blow of the
CME of yesterday reaches the Earth on September 25th, unsettled to
active conditions are possible.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 066, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10923 1203/ 22///
10111 21511 3006/ 4//// 80106 90400
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
22 0953 1000 1009 M1.1 72
1295
22 1029 1101 1144 X1.4 970 II/2
82 1302
23 0147 0159 0210 N25W63 M1.6 1N 72
1295
END
UGEOR 30512 10923 1203/ 23/07 23105
10072 2//// 3//// 4522/ 50240 60014 46423 19200
10074 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60002 44725 00000
10080 2//// 3//// 4522/ 50130 60023 12320 02000
10081 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 20215 00000
10082 2//// 3//// 4642/ 50380 60017 17013 29510
99999
USSPS 32404 22128 09932 76029 45622 37519 78000 43726 0/101 82001
36020 01202 84012 13419 21512 85045 18111 41604 86000 21316 0/101
USSPS 21305 22179 08642 89049 45822 37517 91001 44025 0/101 99001
20917 0/101 97015 13221 37514 98078 17812 51503
USSPS 81202 23002 12522 68048 46025 27528 69001 44226 0/101 73001
36720 0/101 77001 20516 0/101 75016 12819 21420 76091 17414 47514
USSPS 31405 23071 10742 72024 46423 25514 74001 44725 0/102 80013
12320 25523 81001 20215 0/101 82038 17013 44617
UMAGF 30503 10923 1004/ 22062 1/010 21221 32211
UMAGF 31523 10923 ///// 2200/ 1/006 22102 32123
UCMEO 93001 10922 1630/ 10922 61124 91422 0801/ 079// 223// 31290
10922 61009 81148 17808 11302 1112/ 99999 PLAIN
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