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OK0NAG > SOLAR 22.09.11 15:54l 98 Lines 3562 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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_____________________________________________________________________
Solar-activity forecast for the period Sep 23 - 29, 2011
Activity level: mostly moderate
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 130-175 f.u.
Flares: weak (numerous), middle (2-6/period), large (1-3/period)
Relative sunspot number: in the range 90-150
Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
(RWC Prague)
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period Sep 23 to Sep 29, 2011
quiet: Sep 23 to 25, 28 and 29
quiet to unsettled: Sep 26 and 27
unsettled:0
active: 0
minor storm: 0
major storm: 0
severe storm: 0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
geomagnetic field was quiet on
Sep 15, 16 and from 18 to 21,
active on Sep 17.
RWC Prague, Geophysical Institute Prague, Geomagnetic Dept,
Czech Republic
e-mail: geom(at)ig.cas.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period of one solar rotation
Geomagnetic field during the following solar rotation should be:
quiet: Sep 28 - 29, Oct 4, 11, 13, 16 - 19
mostly quiet: Sep 23 - 24, 27, 30, Oct 12, 15
quiet to unsettled: Sep 25, Oct 3, 10
quiet to active: -
quiet to minor storm: Sep 1, Oct 5
quiet to major storm: -
mostly unsettled: Sep 26
unsettled to active: Oct 2
unsettled to minor storm: Oct 7 - 9
minor to major storm: Oct 6, 14
Survey: quiet: Sep 14, 16, 19 - 20
mostly quiet: Sep 18, 21
quiet to unsettled: Sep 15
quiet to active: -
quiet to minor storm: Sep 17
quiet to major storm: -
mostly unsettled: -
unsettled to active: -
unsettled to minor storm: -
minor to major storm: -
Notices:
High probability of changes in solar wind which may caused
changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere is expected about
Sep 23 - 24, 29, Oct 1 - 2, 5 - 6, 11 - 12.
Standard error of our forecasting method is one day since 4th
day, but usually slightly better before them.
Days in brackets refer to a lower probability of possible
activity enhancements depending on previous development
on the Sun.
F. K. Janda (OK1HH), Czech Propagation Interested Group
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
_____________________________________________________________________
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