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OK0NAG > SOLAR 19.09.11 13:42l 140 Lines 5333 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Sep 19 1238 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU262
UGEOA 30512 10919 1155/ 9930/
11192 20192 30192
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 19 Sep 2011 until 21 Sep
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 151 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 007
COMMENT: With plenty of active regions on the solar disk, we can expect
more flaring activity at C-level, with a low chance of an M-flare.
Especially Catania regions 72, 73 and 74 (respectively NOAA AR 1295,
1298 and 1296), which are close to the central meridian, are likely to
produce more C-class flares. The largest flare observed this morning was
a C6.2 flare, peaking at 07:37 UT. It originated from Catania region 75
(NOAA AR 1296). An associated radio burst was detected in Humain.
As reported, the C3.8 flare, peaking at 10:57 UT yesterday, was
associated with a CME. This CME came into the SOHO/LASCO field of view
at 12:42 UT and turned out to be not earth-directed. STEREO-a/COR2
images of this morning suggested an earth-directed CME around 6:54 UT.
Its speed, estimated from the STEREO data, lies around 430 km/s.
However, as new data from PROBA2/SWAP and SOHO/LASCO becomes available,
this CME seems to originate from NOAA AR 1301 on the east limb. As a
result, we do not expect this CME to reach Earth.
The solar wind has a moderate speed, currently around 440 km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field has a total strength of ~ 6nT. Current
geomagnetic conditions are quiet and we expect them to remain so in the
coming days.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 099, BASED ON 08 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10919 1155/ 18///
1//// 21500 3006/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 10919 1155/ 16/07 19111
10061 2//// 3//// 474// 50340 60005 44823 03000
10062 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 35513 00000
10067 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60002 45317 00000
10070 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60006 31815 00000
10071 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50020 60003 10809 00000
10072 2//// 3//// 4432/ 50190 60016 12723 03100
10073 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50040 60007 13417 15100
10074 2//// 3//// 4331/ 50120 60010 13727 16100
10075 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50040 60005 36617 00000
10076 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50030 60006 47023 00000
10077 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50040 60010 22418 03000
99999
USSPS 32404 17075 12732 69027 45723 4/805 70003 37413 01204 72001
40710 1/801 76020 11522 34417 77001 33516 1/801 78013 13026 51309
80004 11914 21504 82003 20821 21406
USSPS 32404 18068 13332 69026 47023 4/802 76020 10122 37424 78007
11726 21410 80002 10215 21305 82007 30520 24415 83010 43525 21405
84006 18721 21402
USSPS 21305 18189 13642 82024 47823 4/802 89043 40523 54427 91008
11126 11409 93003 40315 01205 94009 31121 01217 96010 44225 21304
97010 18322 21302
USSPS 81202 19017 14822 75006 17720 01205 69005 10725 21312 73005
31520 11319 72003 40614 21303 68028 41022 47430 74008 44523 21307
59018 47823 21302
UMAGF 30503 10919 1004/ 18069 1/009 21221 31201
UMAGF 31523 10919 ///// 1800/ 1/006 22112 33112
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