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OK0NAG > SOLAR 11.09.11 14:59l 127 Lines 4733 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Sep 11 1256 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU254
UGEOA 30512 10911 1251/ 9930/
12112 22112 38112
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 11 Sep 2011 until 13 Sep
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 029
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 043
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Sep 2011 10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 043
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at active levels. NOAA AR 11283 is now
a beta-gamma regions and produced a C6.6 flare on September 11 with peak
time 08:51 UT (causing a type II radio burst). Beta region NOAA AR 11289
released a C1.7 flare on September 10 with peak time 17:26 UT. Proton
levels were not affected. More C and M flares from these two regions are
possible, with a slight chance for X flares and proton events.
Active geomagnetic levels persisted until 2 UT on September 11,
including minor storm periods between 19 and 21 UT on September 10 and
22 UT on September 10 and 1 UT on September 11. Geomagnetic conditions
have been quiet afterwards. The frontsided partial halo CME observed of
03:40 UT on September 10 could be geo-effective from September 13, 12 UT
onwards. A new CME was registered by LASCO C2, COR2 A and B on September
10 at 09:48 UT, associated with the M1.1 flare of 07:40 UT. This CME is
expected to be geo-effective from September 14, 0 UT onwards. From
September 11 till 13, the Earth is expected to encounter a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. Active geomagnetic conditions are
possible from now until September 14, with a chance for a minor storm.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 056, BASED ON 10 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10911 1251/ 10///
10082 21160 3038/ 4//// 80105 90600
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 10911 1251/ 10/07 11105
10054 2//// 3//// 4521/ 50170 60008 45814 16300
10059 2//// 3//// 472// 50060 60003 32029 00000
10061 2//// 3//// 4453/ 50320 60012 13223 16300
10062 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50040 60007 22614 02000
10063 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60002 10723 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 10059 06942 65016 46313 21404 67006 31830 2/802 69040
13523 41408 70004 22715 21403 71001 10823 11402
USSPS 21305 10228 07022 82042 13714 51407 83002 21814 21307 80008
32830 1/802 84001 40123 01202 76011 47313 31402
USSPS 81202 11012 10422 54018 47214 21402 57007 32828 2/803 62001
40223 01202 59006 12523 41421 60053 21614 11414 63001 25116 0/102
UMAGF 30503 10911 1004/ 10069 1/041 23434 34532
UMAGF 31523 10911 ///// 1000/ 1/038 25434 33556
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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