| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 09.09.11 00:05l 270 Lines 9030 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : 89LOK0NAG00N
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0PTU<OK0NAG
Sent: 110908/2203z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 8 Sep 2011 22:03:30 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1315518349-03b348676d91f130001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 08 Sep 2011 22:03:23.0127 (UTC) FILETIME=[206DE870:01CC6E73]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.23
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.73965Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.00 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE_2 RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1315518349
----boundary_271454_cf20b2e7-3297-4dd3-93ba-8e8937133813
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1283 (N16W42) produced
two major flares. The first was an X1/3b at 07/2238Z associated with
weak Types II and IV radio sweeps, a 1300 sfu Tenflare, and a
non-Earth-directed CME. The second was an M6/1n at 08/1546Z
associated with a weak Type IV radio sweep. Region 1283 maintained a
weak delta magnetic within the northern portion of its leader spots
and showed trailer spot development during the period. Region 1289
(N21E51) also showed trailer spot development during the period. No
new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (09 - 11 September) with a chance for
another X-class flare from Region 1283.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels until late on day 1 (09 September).
Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels late on 09
September with a chance for active levels due to a CME arrival. A
further increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance for
minor storm levels is expected on day 2 (10 September) as the CME
passage continues. A decrease to unsettled levels is expected on day
3 (11 September). There will be a chance for a greater than 10 MeV
proton event at geosynchronous orbit on day 1.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M 75/70/65
Class X 25/20/15
Proton 20/15/10
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 110
Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 08 Sep 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 010/012-020/022-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/20
Minor storm 10/25/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/40/30
Minor storm 15/30/15
Major-severe storm 01/10/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_271454_cf20b2e7-3297-4dd3-93ba-8e8937133813
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_271454_cf20b2e7-3297-4dd3-93ba-8e8937133813--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
