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OK0NAG > SOLAR 05.09.11 23:02l 247 Lines 8097 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1286 (N20W86)
produced M1 x-ray flares at 05/0428Z and 05/0758Z as it approached
the west limb. Region 1286 also produced a long-duration C7 x-ray
flare at 05/0037Z associated with a non-Earth-directed CME. An
eruption occurred along a filament channel in the northeast quadrant
at around 05/0230Z and was associated with a slow,
non-Earth-directed CME. Region 1283 (N14W04) showed minor changes
during the period and was classified as an Eai group with a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1288 was numbered as a
small Bxo group with a simple beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (06 - 08 September). There will be a chance for
an M-class flare from Region 1286 on 06 September. There will be a
slight chance for an M-class flare during 07 - 08 September from
Region 1283.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (06 - 08
September).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M 20/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 119
Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 115/110/105
90 Day Mean 05 Sep 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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