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OK0NAG > SOLAR 07.08.11 14:21l 110 Lines 4021 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Aug 07 1217 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU219
UGEOA 30512 10807 1157/ 9930/
11072 20072 30072
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 07 Aug 2011 until 09 Aug
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 112 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 007
COMMENT: There is a slight increase in flaring activity. We estimate
the chances for an M-flare to be between 20% and 30%. We have now a full
view of the ACE data showing the arrival of the shock associated with
the fast CME of Aug 04. The data show no rotation of the magnetic field.
This means that we did not pass through the magnetic cloud but only
through the shock and plasma sheath as predicted. The caused geomagnetic
disturbance was however large because of the large total magnetic field
and strong negative Bz component of the field. An explanation is the
cumulation of energy of the Aug 03 and Aug 04 CME. The Aug 04 overtook
probably the Aug 03 CME leading to CME cannibalism. The geomagnetic
conditions are now quiet. Unsettled conditions are possible if the solar
wind emanating from the southern coronal hole reaches Earth.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 053, BASED ON 16 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10807 1157/ 06///
1//// 21100 3028/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
USSPS 32404 06062 07932 33011 46716 21405 34041 43218 57523 38006
22417 21407 39002 14518 01204
USSPS 21305 06151 08432 46010 47215 21406 48043 43718 47525 51004
22116 21411 52001 13919 01202
USSPS 81202 07043 08922 35005 11317 21308 36006 21118 31410 33056
44317 57525 31009 47716 21306
UMAGF 30503 10807 1004/ 06068 1/026 23333 31342
UMAGF 31523 10807 ///// 0600/ 1/028 26434 34413
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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