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OK0NAG > SOLAR 02.08.11 14:11l 119 Lines 4451 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Aug 02 1254 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU214
UGEOA 30512 10802 1240/ 9930/
12022 20022 30022
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 02 Aug 2011 until 04 Aug
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Aug 2011 10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 013
COMMENT: NOAA AR 1261, located 15° to the west of the central meridian
and 14° to the N of the solar equator released an M1.4 flare peaking at
06:19UT. Radio data of Humain show a type II burst. A southward EUV-wave
was visible in SDO/AIA 193 data. A first estimate of the CME speed with
STEREO/COR2 data gives a speed of between 700 and 800 km/s. We cannot
yet confirm with SOHO/LASCO data if the CME is a full or a partial halo,
i.e. Earth directed or a glancing blow. We expect the plasma to pass
along Earth on July 04-05. The event came along with an increase in the
proton flux. The curve did not pass the storm threshold. The sunspots
associated with NOAA AR 1261 are still changing and restructuring,
although less active compared with the previous 24 hours. We estimate
the probability for M-flares to be 50%, for X-flares to be 15%.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 068, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10802 1240/ 01///
1//// 21250 3008/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
02 0519 0619 0648 N14W15 M1.4 1N 220 CTM/1,II/1
1261 CME
END
UGEOR 30512 10802 1240/ 27/06 02106
10041 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50020 60005 42817 00000
10043 2//// 3//// 4522/ 50110 60025 13918 03000
10044 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50120 60020 16817 17411
10045 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 10716 00000
10046 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 26923 00000
10047 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 27232 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 01053 11332 32022 42619 41510 33035 10516 57541 34046
13217 44420 36001 45917 0/102
USSPS 21305 01146 14342 49004 46417 2/801 44030 43018 41516 46031
40116 57659 48049 12718 57427
USSPS 81202 02023 08822 34002 46816 01202 29032 43719 41510 31041
41115 54523 33070 12117 44413
UMAGF 30503 10802 1004/ 01060 1/009 22121 31121
UMAGF 31523 10802 ///// 0100/ 1/008 22322 32212
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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