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OK0NAG > SOLAR    31.07.11 03:53l 253 Lines 8309 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Jul 30 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z

to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was high.  Region 1261 (N17E22), a Dkc

spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification, produced

an impulsive M9 flare at 0209Z with an associated Tenflare.  There

appeared to be no CME associated with the event in LASCO imagery. 

Region 1260 (N19W09) has shown consolidation in its trailer spots

and is now classified as a Ehi spot group with a Beta magnetic

configuration.  Region 1263 (N18E48) has been relatively stable and

did not produce any significant flaring during the period.  New

Region 1265 (N18W41) was numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue

at low levels with the chance for M-class flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  Active periods were

likely due to a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) associated with

the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream.  ACE signatures

indicate a possible weak CIR onset at approximately 0900Z on 30

July.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be unsettled to active from 31 July to 01 August due to

effects from the coronal hole high speed stream.  Quiet to unsettled

conditions are expected on 02 August.

III.  Event Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug

Class M    45/45/40

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           30 Jul 113

Predicted   31 Jul-02 Aug  110/110/110

90 Day Mean        30 Jul 095

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul  003/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul  011/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  012/012-012/012-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                35/35/15

Minor storm           15/15/05

Major-severe storm    05/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                40/40/20

Minor storm           20/20/10

Major-severe storm    10/10/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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