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OK0NAG > SOLAR 22.04.08 23:02l 76 Lines 3123 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Tue, 22 Apr 2008 22:01:40 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Apr 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. New Region 992 (N13W01) emerged today as a small,
C-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (23-25 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet from the beginning of the period
through about 1500Z. Since then activity has been unsettled.
Real-time solar wind data from ACE indicate a possible solar sector
boundary from 'away' orientation (positive) to 'towards' orientation
(negative) at about 1410Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for the first and second days (23-24 April). The elevated
activity is expected in response to a coronal hole which should be
in a favorable position on those days. Activity is expected to
decline to quiet to unsettled for the third day (25 April).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 071
Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 22 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 012/015-012/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/15
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/15
Minor storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
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