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OK0NAG > SOLAR 09.07.11 14:55l 116 Lines 4332 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Sat, 9 Jul 2011 12:52:42 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Jul 09 1249 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU190
UGEOA 30512 10709 1150/ 9930/
11092 20092 30092
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 09 Jul 2011 until 11 Jul
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jul 2011 10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jul 2011 10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jul 2011 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 006
COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 25 (NOAA AR 1247) produced four C-class
flares yesterday, but none of them was associated with a clear CME. More
C-class flares are possible in this sunspot group, although the
emergence of the new magnetic flux seems to have stopped there. This
active region also produced a B4.7 flare peaking at 00:28 UT today
accompanied by a CME, probably a partial halo. The CME speed as measured
in the STEREO A SECCHI/COR2 data is around 700 km/s. We expect this CME
to have at most a glancing blow at the Earth, on July 11-12, with
possible disturbed geomagnetic conditions. The Earth is currently inside
a slow (around 380 km/s) solar wind flow with elevated (around 9 nT)
interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. Due to low solar wind speed,
disturbed geomagnetic conditions are unlikely, although not completely
excluded. This solar wind structure may possibly precede the fast solar
wind stream from a low-latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere.
As the coronal hole is small, we do not expect the fast stream to
produce a significant geomagnetic disturbance.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 033, BASED ON 11 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10709 1150/ 08///
10074 20860 3//// 4//// 80305 90130
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 10709 1150/ 08/07 09105
10019 2//// 3//// 4311/ 50030 60006 46318 01000
10023 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60004 15315 00000
10024 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60006 43716 00000
10025 2//// 3//// 4311/ 50040 60007 21918 16000
10026 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 16020 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 08074 05832 14004 46517 2/801 17002 15515 2/801 18002
22018 21403 19000 16220 0/101 20002 43815 11302
UMAGF 30503 10709 1004/ 08060 1/021 22212 32334
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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