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OK0NAG > SOLAR 08.07.11 15:03l 125 Lines 4808 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Jul 08 1259 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU189
UGEOA 30512 10708 1239/ 9930/
11082 20082 30082
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 08 Jul 2011 until 10 Jul
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jul 2011 10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jul 2011 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jul 2011 10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 014
COMMENT: Two C-class flares occurred today in the newly emerged Catania
sunspot group 25 (no NOAA number yet): C3.0 and C2.8 peaking at 09:45 UT
and 11:51 UT respectively. No SOHO/LASCO or SDO/AIA data is available at
the moment of writing to determine definitively if CME(s) were possibly
associated with these flares. However, STEREO/SECCHI beacon data
indicate a small CME associated with the first C-class flare, and a
coronal dimming (most probably produced by a CME) associated with the
second flare. More C-class flares are expected to occur in this active
region, with a small chance for an M-class flare. Due to position of the
Catania sunspot group 25 close to the solar central meridian, any
associated CME may be directed to the Earth, possibly resulting in
disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Currently, the Earth is inside a slow
(around 350 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5-6 nT)
interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic
conditions in the coming hours. The arrival of a fast solar wind stream
from a low-latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere is possible
tomorrow. However, due to the small extent of the coronal hole,
disturbed geomagnetic conditions are unlikely.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 045, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10708 1239/ 07///
10043 20860 3009/ 4//// 80103 90080
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 10708 1239/ 08/07 08105
10019 2//// 3//// 4311/ 50030 60006 46318 02000
10023 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50030 60004 15315 00000
10024 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50020 60006 43716 00000
10025 2//// 3//// 4311/ 50040 60007 21918 17100
10026 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 16020 00000
99999
USSPS 32404 07072 02732 14005 45118 21405 17001 16814 01202
USSPS 21305 07169 05542 21008 45616 31309 25000 25916 0/101 24005
16317 21304 26000 17122 0/101
USSPS 81202 08033 08322 14002 16721 01202 12004 15715 01303 15002
25417 0/102 16002 43513 01205 10006 46115 01206 13002 22519 0/105
USSPS 31405 08078 07442 19003 46318 11306 23003 15315 21304 24002
43716 01206 25004 21918 12307 26001 16020 0/101
UMAGF 30503 10708 1004/ 07061 1/015 22222 33311
UMAGF 31523 10708 ///// 0700/ 1/009 22112 32333
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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