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OK0NAG > SOLAR 12.06.11 23:05l 277 Lines 9127 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity remained very low. Isolated B-class
x-ray flares occurred. A B8 flare at 12/1714Z was from a region just
beyond the northeast limb. Region 1234 (S15E18) was the only spotted
region on the disk and remained a simply-structured Bxo group. A
prominence erupted from the west limb near N09W90 during 12/1341 -
1443Z and was associated with a CME. The CME had an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of 565 km/s and did not appear to be
Earth-directed. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to very low
during the period (13 - 15 June) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during most of
the period. An active period was observed at Boulder during 12/1200
- 1500Z. ACE solar wind data indicated the continued presence of a
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) with wind speeds in the 436
to 485 km/s range. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was slightly enhanced, likely associated with
recent activity in old Region 1226 (S20, L=037), which departed the
west limb on 09 June.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (13 -
14 June) with a chance for active levels due CH HSS effects.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (15 June)
as the CH HSS begins to subside. There is a slight chance for a
greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit on day 1
(13 June).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 085
Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 12 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor storm 15/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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