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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.06.11 11:40l 108 Lines 4038 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly Ri Report
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Subject: Monthly Ri Report
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
May 2011 : 41.6 (forty-one point six)
Maximum : 82 on 30 // Minimum : 8 on 24
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for May 2011 :
1.. 50 6.. 32 11.. 47 16.. 41 21.. 26 26.. 30 31.. 76
2.. 39 7.. 31 12.. 33 17.. 36 22.. 40 27.. 45
3.. 51 8.. 45 13.. 26 18.. 29 23.. 22 28.. 52
4.. 54 9.. 60 14.. 37 19.. 26 24.. 8 29.. 70
5.. 54 10.. 64 15.. 41 20.. 25 25.. 17 30.. 82
72 cooperating stations on June 1, 09 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for November 2010 : 26.5 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2010 Dec 29 30 2011 Jun 56 59 2011 Dec 92 91
2011 Jan 31 35 Jul 61 64 2012 Jan 101 93
Feb 34 41 Aug 67 69 Feb 110 96
Mar 39 45 Sep 73 75 Mar 121 99
Apr 44 50 Oct 79 80 Apr 133 102
May 50 55 Nov 85 85 May 143 105
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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