| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 27.05.11 23:04l 302 Lines 10087 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : R5LOK0NAG00L
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IV3SCP<SR1BSZ<OK0NBR<OK0PHL<OK0PCC<OM0PBC<OK0PPL<OK0NAG
Sent: 110527/2203z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 27 May 2011 22:02:50 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1306533314-03b3480a1a34af0001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 27 May 2011 22:06:57.0156 (UTC) FILETIME=[650A2440:01CC1CBA]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.291
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.64853Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1306533314
----boundary_612816_a8e83533-9868-4124-b5d1-213d57e2937d
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was low. New Region 1226 (S18E74)
produced a B-class event and four C-class events since being
numbered today. The largest was a C5 observed at 27/1643Z. This
region began with a B1 event at 26/1654Z as it approached the
southeast limb yesterday. It is currently an H-type group, however,
the region is still rotating onto the disk and more white light area
are evident in the SDO/HMI imagery just visible on the limb. Region
1223 (S16W00) produced the only other event during the period, a B4
at 27/0953Z. This region is a Dso group with a beta magnetic
classification and grew slightly in sunspot count. Two more regions
were numbered today as Regions 1224 (N21W15) and 1225 (N18E55).
Region 1224 is a Dso group with a beta magnetic classification and
1225 is another H-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for C-class events, and a slight chance for an M-class
event, as regions on the disk continue to evolve.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Observations from the
ACE spacecraft suggest the earth is under the continued influence of
the co-rotating interaction region in advance of the recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. Solar winds have slowly increased
from around 390 to 500 km/s. The IMF Bt averaged around 8 nT with
the Bz mostly southward (-8 nT) through the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled with occasional active
periods, including isolated minor storm conditions at high-latitudes
for day one (28 May). This is expected due to effects from the
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). In addition
there are possible effects from the disappearing filament observed
on 25 May. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active
levels, are expected for days two and three (29-30 May) with
continued CH HSS effects.
III. Event Probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 May 090
Predicted 28 May-30 May 090/095/095
90 Day Mean 27 May 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May ???/???
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 015/018-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_612816_a8e83533-9868-4124-b5d1-213d57e2937d
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_612816_a8e83533-9868-4124-b5d1-213d57e2937d--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
