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OK0NAG > SOLAR    07.05.11 23:03l 243 Lines 8082 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 May 07 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z

to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low. Region 1203 (N17W41)

and Region 1204 (N17W27) are the only remaining active spotted

regions.  All other regions have decayed to spotless plage.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very

low to low during days one through three (08-10 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with isolate unsettled

conditions late in the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux

at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (08-09 May). 

Day three is expected to be quiet to unsettled for most of the day,

with a chance for an isolated active period late in the day.  The

increase in activity is forecast due to a coronal hole high speed

stream (CH-HSS) becoming geo-effective. The co-rotating interactive

region associated with this CH-HSS is expected to arrive between

10/1800Z-11/0600Z and maintains the possibility of causing isolated

minor storm conditions especially at high latitudes.

III.  Event Probabilities 08 May-10 May

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           07 May 102

Predicted   08 May-10 May  105/105/105

90 Day Mean        07 May 110

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  003/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May  004/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  005/005-005/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                05/05/10

Minor storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/10/15

Minor storm           01/01/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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