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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.04.11 15:08l 107 Lines 4045 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Monthly Ri Report
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Subject: Monthly Ri Report
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
March 2011 : 56.2 (fifty-six point two)
Maximum : 100 on 8 // Minimum : 17 on 21
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for March 2011 :
1.. 47 6.. 92 11.. 59 16.. 27 21.. 17 26.. 72 31.. 66
2.. 37 7.. 98 12.. 59 17.. 27 22.. 32 27.. 84
3.. 52 8..100 13.. 66 18.. 20 23.. 30 28.. 88
4.. 70 9.. 80 14.. 43 19.. 29 24.. 39 29.. 74
5.. 76 10.. 67 15.. 34 20.. 21 25.. 69 30.. 68
64 cooperating stations on April 1, 10 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for September 2010 : 19.6 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2010 Oct 21 23 2011 Apr 32 55 2011 Oct 42 85
Nov 24 29 May 33 60 Nov 43 88
Dec 25 35 Jun 35 64 Dec 43 91
2011 Jan 27 40 Jul 37 68 2012 Jan 44 93
Feb 29 46 Aug 39 74 Feb 44 96
Mar 30 50 Sep 40 80 Mar 45 99
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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