| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 27.03.11 23:05l 352 Lines 11887 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : R3LOK0NAG00P
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<OK0NAG
Sent: 110327/2203z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 27 Mar 2011 22:03:31 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1301263373-03b3480d9b53260001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 27 Mar 2011 22:06:22.0468 (UTC) FILETIME=[352A6C40:01CBECCB]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.331
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.59155Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.98:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1301263373
----boundary_653935_ef3ac1ba-6b6d-4d98-acdb-e9e4903915c5
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1176 (S15E02) produced a
C3/Sf at 27/0014Z with discrete radio emissions. Associated with
this event was a CME, first observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery at
27/0200Z and 27/0242Z respectively. The CME appeared as a narrow
band extending east, as viewed in LASCO, and had an estimated
plane-of-sky velocity of 630 km/s. SDO/AIA 193 imagery indicated
material movement in a wide band extending north through east with
stronger movement in an easterly direction. Region 1176 showed
little change during the period. At 27/0511Z, Type II (estimated
shock velocity of 651 km/s) and Type IV radio signatures were
observed. GOES13 and 15 were in eclipse phase, so GOES XRS data was
not available. At 27/0512Z, limited GOES-15 SXI data indicated
surging and material movement off the NE limb in the vicinity of new
Region 1183 (N15E62). LASCO C2 (27/0536Z) and C3 (27/0606Z) imagery
detected an asymmetric, partial-halo CME lifting off the NE limb
with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 880 km/s. New Region 1183
rotated on as a large, 8-spot E-type group with beta-gamma magnetic
characteristics. New Region 1182 (N13E01) evolved on the disk as a
single spot unipolar group. The remaining groups were quiet and
stable during the period. At this time, neither CMEs observed on 27
March appeared to have an Earth-directed component. The Penticton
10.7 cm flux and 90 day mean are estimated due to non-receipt of 27
March's flux reading.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days (28-30 March). A chance for M-class
activity exists on day one (28 March) becoming likely on days two
and three (29 - 30 March) with a slight chance for X-class activity
on 29 - 30 March. This expected increase in activity is due to the
complex nature of Regions 1176 and 1183 plus the return of old
Regions 1166 (N10, L=110) on 28 March and 1169 (N17, L=078) on 30
March. On their last transit across the disk, these regions produced
a total of six M-class events and one X-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. ACE solar wind velocities were low,
varying between 300 to 370 Km/s, while the Bz component of the IMF
was generally north through a majority of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods, on day one (28 March) due to possible effects from the 24
March CME. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for day two (29
March). By day three (30 March), quiet to unsettled conditions, with
isolated active periods, are expected due to the arrival of a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M 50/60/70
Class X 05/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 117
Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 125/125/130
90 Day Mean 27 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 001/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 010/010-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/20
Minor storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/25
Minor storm 10/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_653935_ef3ac1ba-6b6d-4d98-acdb-e9e4903915c5
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64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----boundary_653935_ef3ac1ba-6b6d-4d98-acdb-e9e4903915c5--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
