| |
OK0NAG > SOLAR 10.03.11 00:03l 279 Lines 9282 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
BID : 93LOK0NAG00M
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG
Sent: 110309/2202z @:OK0NAG.#BOH.CZE.EU [TCP/IP BBS Praha Strahov] bcm2.01e-zia
X-Info: Prijato od 127.0.0.1 za pomoci SMTP gatewaye
X-barracuda-connect: sunkl.asu.cas.cz[147.231.106.1]
X-barracuda-apparent-source-ip: 147.231.106.1
Date: 9 Mar 2011 22:02:14 +0000
X-barracuda-spam-score: 1.34
X-asg-debug-id: 1299707798-01a3c008ac354d0001-dKRjYV
To: solar@eu
X-originalarrivaltime: 09 Mar 2011 22:04:42.0796 (UTC) FILETIME=[FE522EC0:01CBDEA5]
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
X-barracuda-bbl-ip: nil
X-barracuda-spam-status: No, SCORE=1.34 using global scores of TAG_LEVEL=1000.0 QUARANTINE_LEVEL=1000.0 KILL_LEVEL=9.0 tests=HTML_MESSAGE, MIME_BASE64_TEXT, MIME_QP_LONG_LINE
X-spam-flag: NO
X-spam-score: -0.347
X-barracuda-envelope-from: solar@sunkl.asu.cas.cz
X-barracuda-spam-report: Code version 3.2, rules version 3.2.2.57541Rule breakdown below pts rule name description---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message0.52 MIME_BASE64_TEXT RAW: Mes
sage text disguised using base64 encoding0.82 MIME_QP_LONG_LINE RAW: Quoted-printable line longer than 76 chars
X-barracuda-url: http://147.231.105.99:8000/cgi-mod/mark.cgi
Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-barracuda-start-time: 1299707798
----boundary_368563_e7efcbde-b6ff-491c-aef9-3c9e73250ece
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Two M1 x-ray flares were
observed from Region 1166 (N09W12) which was an Ekc spot group with
a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification. The area of this region
and the number of spots increased over the last 24 hours. Region
1169 (N20E18) also grew in area and number of spots over the past 24
hours, ending the period as an Esc type spot group with a Beta-Gamma
magnetic classification. The remaining regions were either small
and magnetically simple (Region 1170) or decaying (Region 1164) and
rotating off the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate for day 1 (10 March) with a chance for M-class activity
from Region 1166 or Region 1169.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained above the 10 pfu threshold throughout the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed measured at the STEREO-A spacecraft jumped from
approximately 650 km/s to 870 km/s near 09/0700Z. This jump was
accompanied by southward Bz to -20nT. These observations were
consistent with a shock passage from the CME that originated on
07/2012Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active, with isolated minor storm
periods possible at high latitudes on day one (10 March), and
primarily unsettled conditions on days two and three (11-12 March).
The CME from 07 March is expected to arrive mid-day on 10 March,
leading to the elevated activity.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M 50/40/30
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 75/50/20
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 143
Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 145/145/140
90 Day Mean 09 Mar 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 020/022-012/018-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 20/15/01
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor storm 25/20/05
Major-severe storm 15/10/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
----boundary_368563_e7efcbde-b6ff-491c-aef9-3c9e73250ece
Content-Type: text/html
Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64
PCFET0NUWVBFIEhUTUwgUFVCTElDICItLy9XM0MvL0RURCBIVE1MIDQuMCBUcmFuc2l0aW9u
YWwvL0VOIj48SFRNTD48SEVBRD48TUVUQSBodHRwLWVxdWl2PUNvbnRlbnQtVHlwZSBjb250
ZW50PSJ0ZXh0L2h0bWw7IGNoYXJzZXQ9aXNvLTg4NTktMSI+PC9IRUFEPjxCT0RZPjxQUkU+
OlByb2R1Y3Q6IFJlcG9ydCBvZiBTb2xhci1HZW9waHlzaWNhbCBBY3Rpdml0eQ0KOklzc3Vl
ZDogMjAxMSBNYXIgMDkgMjIwMCBVVEMNCiMgUHJlcGFyZWQgam9pbnRseSBieSB0aGUgVS5T
LiBEZXB0LiBvZiBDb21tZXJjZSwgTk9BQSwNCiMgU3BhY2UgV2VhdGhlciBQcmVkaWN0aW9u
IENlbnRlciBhbmQgdGhlIFUuUy4gQWlyIEZvcmNlLg0KIw0KSm9pbnQgVVNBRi9OT0FBIFJl
cG9ydCBvZiBTb2xhciBhbmQgR2VvcGh5c2ljYWwgQWN0aXZpdHkNClNERiBOdW1iZXIgMDY4
IElzc3VlZCBhdCAyMjAwWiBvbiAwOSBNYXIgMjAxMQ0KSUEuICBBbmFseXNpcyBvZiBTb2xh
ciBBY3RpdmUgUmVnaW9ucyBhbmQgQWN0aXZpdHkgZnJvbSAgMDgvMjEwMFoNCnRvIDA5LzIx
MDBaOiAgU29sYXIgYWN0aXZpdHkgd2FzIG1vZGVyYXRlLiAgVHdvIE0xIHgtcmF5IGZsYXJl
cyB3ZXJlDQpvYnNlcnZlZCBmcm9tIFJlZ2lvbiAxMTY2IChOMDlXMTIpIHdoaWNoIHdhcyBh
biBFa2Mgc3BvdCBncm91cCB3aXRoDQphIEJldGEtR2FtbWEtRGVsdGEgbWFnbmV0aWMgY2xh
c3NpZmljYXRpb24uICBUaGUgYXJlYSBvZiB0aGlzIHJlZ2lvbg0KYW5kIHRoZSBudW1iZXIg
b2Ygc3BvdHMgaW5jcmVhc2VkIG92ZXIgdGhlIGxhc3QgMjQgaG91cnMuICBSZWdpb24NCjEx
NjkgKE4yMEUxOCkgYWxzbyBncmV3IGluIGFyZWEgYW5kIG51bWJlciBvZiBzcG90cyBvdmVy
IHRoZSBwYXN0IDI0DQpob3VycywgZW5kaW5nIHRoZSBwZXJpb2QgYXMgYW4gRXNjIHR5cGUg
c3BvdCBncm91cCB3aXRoIGEgQmV0YS1HYW1tYQ0KbWFnbmV0aWMgY2xhc3NpZmljYXRpb24u
ICBUaGUgcmVtYWluaW5nIHJlZ2lvbnMgd2VyZSBlaXRoZXIgc21hbGwNCmFuZCBtYWduZXRp
Y2FsbHkgc2ltcGxlIChSZWdpb24gMTE3MCkgb3IgZGVjYXlpbmcgKFJlZ2lvbiAxMTY0KSBh
bmQNCnJvdGF0aW5nIG9mZiB0aGUgdmlzaWJsZSBkaXNrLg0KSUIuICBTb2xhciBBY3Rpdml0
eSBGb3JlY2FzdDogIFNvbGFyIGFjdGl2aXR5IGlzIGV4cGVjdGVkIHRvIHJlbWFpbg0KbW9k
ZXJhdGUgZm9yIGRheSAxICgxMCBNYXJjaCkgd2l0aCBhIGNoYW5jZSBmb3IgTS1jbGFzcyBh
Y3Rpdml0eQ0KZnJvbSBSZWdpb24gMTE2NiBvciBSZWdpb24gMTE2OS4NCklJQS4gIEdlb3Bo
eXNpY2FsIEFjdGl2aXR5IFN1bW1hcnkgMDgvMjEwMFogdG8gMDkvMjEwMFo6DQpUaGUgZ2Vv
bWFnbmV0aWMgZmllbGQgd2FzIHF1aWV0LiAgVGhlIGdyZWF0ZXIgdGhhbiAxMCBNZVYgcHJv
dG9uIGZsdXgNCnJlbWFpbmVkIGFib3ZlIHRoZSAxMCBwZnUgdGhyZXNob2xkIHRocm91Z2hv
dXQgdGhlIHBhc3QgMjQgaG91cnMuIA0KU29sYXIgd2luZCBzcGVlZCBtZWFzdXJlZCBhdCB0
aGUgU1RFUkVPLUEgc3BhY2VjcmFmdCBqdW1wZWQgZnJvbQ0KYXBwcm94aW1hdGVseSA2NTAg
a20vcyB0byA4NzAga20vcyBuZWFyIDA5LzA3MDBaLiAgVGhpcyBqdW1wIHdhcw0KYWNjb21w
YW5pZWQgYnkgc291dGh3YXJkIEJ6IHRvIC0yMG5ULiAgVGhlc2Ugb2JzZXJ2YXRpb25zIHdl
cmUNCmNvbnNpc3RlbnQgd2l0aCBhIHNob2NrIHBhc3NhZ2UgZnJvbSB0aGUgQ01FIHRoYXQg
b3JpZ2luYXRlZCBvbg0KMDcvMjAxMlouIFRoZSBncmVhdGVyIHRoYW4gMiBNZVYgZWxlY3Ry
b24gZmx1eCBhdCBnZW9zeW5jaHJvbm91cw0Kb3JiaXQgcmVhY2hlZCBoaWdoIGxldmVscyBk
dXJpbmcgdGhlIHBlcmlvZC4NCklJQi4gIEdlb3BoeXNpY2FsIEFjdGl2aXR5IEZvcmVjYXN0
OiAgVGhlIGdlb21hZ25ldGljIGZpZWxkIGlzDQpleHBlY3RlZCB0byBiZSB1bnNldHRsZWQg
dG8gYWN0aXZlLCB3aXRoIGlzb2xhdGVkIG1pbm9yIHN0b3JtDQpwZXJpb2RzIHBvc3NpYmxl
IGF0IGhpZ2ggbGF0aXR1ZGVzIG9uIGRheSBvbmUgKDEwIE1hcmNoKSwgYW5kDQpwcmltYXJp
bHkgdW5zZXR0bGVkIGNvbmRpdGlvbnMgb24gZGF5cyB0d28gYW5kIHRocmVlICgxMS0xMiBN
YXJjaCkuIA0KVGhlIENNRSBmcm9tIDA3IE1hcmNoIGlzIGV4cGVjdGVkIHRvIGFycml2ZSBt
aWQtZGF5IG9uIDEwIE1hcmNoLA0KbGVhZGluZyB0byB0aGUgZWxldmF0ZWQgYWN0aXZpdHku
DQpJSUkuICBFdmVudCBQcm9iYWJpbGl0aWVzIDEwIE1hci0xMiBNYXINCkNsYXNzIE0gICAg
NTAvNDAvMzANCkNsYXNzIFggICAgMDUvMDUvMDENClByb3RvbiAgICAgNzUvNTAvMjANClBD
QUYgICAgICAgeWVsbG93DQpJVi4gIFBlbnRpY3RvbiAxMC43IGNtIEZsdXgNCk9ic2VydmVk
ICAgICAgICAgICAwOSBNYXIgMTQzDQpQcmVkaWN0ZWQgICAxMCBNYXItMTIgTWFyICAxNDUv
MTQ1LzE0MA0KOTAgRGF5IE1lYW4gICAgICAgIDA5IE1hciAwOTINClYuICBHZW9tYWduZXRp
YyBBIEluZGljZXMNCk9ic2VydmVkIEFmci9BcCAwOCBNYXIgIDAwNC8wMDUNCkVzdGltYXRl
ZCBBZnIvQXAgMDkgTWFyICAwMDUvMDA4DQpQcmVkaWN0ZWQgQWZyL0FwIDEwIE1hci0xMiBN
YXIgIDAyMC8wMjItMDEyLzAxOC0wMDgvMDA4DQpWSS4gIEdlb21hZ25ldGljIEFjdGl2aXR5
IFByb2JhYmlsaXRpZXMgMTAgTWFyLTEyIE1hcg0KQS4gIE1pZGRsZSBMYXRpdHVkZXMNCkFj
dGl2ZSAgICAgICAgICAgICAgICAyNS8yNS8yNQ0KTWlub3Igc3Rvcm0gICAgICAgICAgIDIw
LzE1LzAxDQpNYWpvci1zZXZlcmUgc3Rvcm0gICAgMTAvMDUvMDENCkIuICBIaWdoIExhdGl0
dWRlcw0KQWN0aXZlICAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIDM1LzM1LzM1DQpNaW5vciBzdG9ybSAgICAg
ICAgICAgMjUvMjAvMDUNCk1ham9yLXNldmVyZSBzdG9ybSAgICAxNS8xMC8wNQ0KPC9QUkU+
PEJSPjxIUj5UaGFuayB5b3UgZm9yIHVzaW5nIHRoZSBQcm9kdWN0IFN1YnNjcmlwdGlvbiBT
ZXJ2aWNlLiBJZiB5b3Ugd291bGQgbGlrZSB0byByZW1vdmUgYSBwcm9kdWN0IHN1YnNjcmlw
dGlvbiBvciB1cGRhdGUgdGhlIHBlcnNvbmFsIGluZm9ybWF0aW9uIGluIHlvdXIgYWNjb3Vu
dCwgZ28gdG8gdGhlIDxhIGhyZWY9Imh0dHBzOi8vcHNzLnN3cGMubm9hYS5nb3YiPlByb2R1
Y3QgU3Vic2NyaXB0aW9uIFNpdGUuPC9hPiBQbGVhc2UgZG8gbm90IHVzZSB0aGUgZnJvbSBh
ZGRyZXNzIGZvciBjb3JyZXNwb25kZW5jZSwgYXMgaXQgaXMgbm90IG1vbml0b3JlZC4gRm9y
IGNvbW1lbnRzIG9yIGhlbHAsIHBsZWFzZSBjb250YWN0IDxhIGhyZWY9Im1haWx0bzpwc3Mu
aGVscEBub2FhLmdvdiI+U1dQQyBIZWxwLjwvYT48L0JPRFk+PC9IVE1MPg=----boundary_368563_e7efcbde-b6ff-491c-aef9-3c9e73250ece--
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
