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OK0NAG > SOLAR    06.03.11 23:02l 247 Lines 8182 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Mar 06 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z

to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Regions 1164 (N24W46), 1165

(S20W68), 1166 (N11E27), and a new region numbered today as 1169

(N21E56) have all produced C-class events in the past 24 hours.  The

largest of these was a C8 at 06/1444Z from Region 1164.  This region

continues to maintain its Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

with a chance for a M-class event.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with one period of unsettled

conditions reported at 06/1500Z.  Observations from the ACE

spacecraft observed a period around 06/1350Z of southward Bz to -5nT

and a Bt of +6nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at

geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions,

and a slight chance for minor storm levels at high latitudes, for

day one (07 March).  This activity is expected due to the possible

arrival of the CME observed on 03 March.  Predominately quiet

conditions are expected for days two and three (08-09 March).

III.  Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar

Class M    45/45/45

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           06 Mar 143

Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar  145/145/145

90 Day Mean        06 Mar 090

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  004/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar  005/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  008/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/05/05

Minor storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                25/05/05

Minor storm           10/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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