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OK0NAG > SOLAR    05.03.11 09:55l 277 Lines 9160 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2011 Mar 04 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2011

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z

to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Several small C-class flares

were observed from Region 1164 (N23W14).  This region was classified

as an Ekc type spot group with Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic

characteristics.  Region 1166 (N09E55) more than tripled in size

over the past 24 hours and the number of spots doubled.  Region 1166

was classified as an Eac type spot group with Beta magnetic

characteristics.  Region 1168 (N24W73) emerged on the disk as a

small bipolar group.  Two East limb CMEs were observed in both SOHO

LASCO and STEREO imagery, although neither appeared to be

Earth-directed.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 

More C-class flares are expected from Regions 1164 and 1166, with a

chance for an M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  A waning coronal hole

high speed stream remained geoeffective and solar wind speed at the

ACE spacecraft was approximately 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV

electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout

the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to range from quiet to active levels with a slight chance

for minor storm periods at high latitudes for the next three days

(05-07 March).   Model guidance suggests a possible arrival on day

two (06 March) of an Earth-directed CME observed early on 03 March. 

This slow-moving CME is expected to bring a slight chance for major

storm conditions at high latitudes.  Activity levels are anticipated

to decrease on day three (07 March).

III.  Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar

Class M    35/35/35

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           04 Mar 127

Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar  125/125/125

90 Day Mean        04 Mar 089

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  011/012

Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar  010/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  010/012-008/010-005/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/25/05

Minor storm           05/10/01

Major-severe storm    01/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                25/30/25

Minor storm           10/15/10

Major-severe storm    05/10/05



Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like 
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in 
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from 
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, 
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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