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OK0NAG > SOLAR 19.02.11 15:27l 124 Lines 4764 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Feb 19 1323 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU050
UGEOA 30512 10219 1303/ 9930/
12192 21192 30192
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 19 Feb 2011 until 21 Feb
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Feb 2011 10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Feb 2011 10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Feb 2011 10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 007
COMMENT: NOAA AR 1162 (Catania 15) emerged to the north of NOAA AR 1161
(Catania 14, before numbered 1160). It produced an M1.0 flare peaking at
14:08 UT and an M1.3 at 21:04 UT. NOAA AR 1158 (Catania 10) is still
active with an M1.4 flare at 13:03 UT, related to a west directed CME.
Both regions, especially NOAA AR 1162 which is evolving rapidly, have
potential for more M- and, less likely, X-class flares. The Earth is
still inside the complex CME that arrived early on February 18. The part
that arrived first and lasted until yesterday evening has
characteristics of a sheath region, with high and turbulent magnetic
fields and plasma. Since 19:40 UT on February 18, commencing by a
discontinuity in the magnetic field, the data shows signatures of an
interplanetary magnetic flux rope. These are a smooth rotation of the
magnetic field, accompanied by low plasma temperatures. This situation
is still ongoing now. As the field has had a mostly northward
orientation, no strong geomagnetic disturbance has been recorded after
the minor storm of yesterday. This can change at any time while the
Earth is inside the ICME, which can last for another 24 hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 048, BASED ON 02 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10219 1303/ 18///
1//// 21250 3020/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
18 1259 1303 1306 M1.4 10
1158
18 1400 1408 1415 M1.0 15
1162
18 2056 2104 2114 M1.3 15
1162
END
UGEOR 30512 10219 1303/ 19/09 19103
10010 2//// 3//// 4532/ 50380 60008 37020 18410
10014 2//// 3//// 4532/ 50300 60017 40711 15100
10015 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50210 60016 41117 28530
99999
USSPS 21305 18174 08232 23010 36219 34415 25015 10312 34513 28026
40218 34424
USSPS 81202 18014 12322 19025 11112 44544 20003 10619 11313 17051
35020 47536
USSPS 31405 19093 07132 10038 37020 34508 14030 40711 34517 15021
41117 24416
UMAGF 30503 10219 1004/ 18061 1/028 24433 32232
UMAGF 31523 10219 ///// 1800/ 1/020 23444 33333
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium #
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