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OK0NAG > SOLAR 16.02.11 15:16l 119 Lines 4617 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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:Issued: 2011 Feb 16 1312 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU047
UGEOA 30512 10216 1248/ 9930/
12162 22162 30162
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 16 Feb 2011 until 18 Feb
2011
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Feb 2011 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 002
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Feb 2011 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 023
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Feb 2011 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 037
COMMENT: Solar activity continues to be high from NOAA AR 1158 with two
M flares (M1.0 flare peaking at 01:39 UT and M1.0 at 07:44 UT), plus
several C-flares. This region is still growing and has potential for
more M and probably X class flares. An eruption occurred in AR 1161
(around 02:00 UT) that lead to a CME directed towards the north which is
not expected to arrive to the Earth. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet
but are expected to be disturbed later tonight or tomorrow, by the
arrival of the CMEs (3) that erupted in the previous three days. Since
the last CME was faster than the previous two, they will most likely
interact in interplanetary space and it is extremely difficult to give
a
good prediction of the geomagnetic consequences, but storms are expected.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 048, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 10216 1248/ 15///
10094 21131 3008/ 4//// 80004 90770
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania
NOAA NOTE
15 0144 0156 0206 X2.2 1300 II/2,III/3,IV/2
10 1158
16 0132 0139 0146 M1.0 VI/1
14 1161
16 0735 0744 0755 M1.1 10
1158
END
UGEOR 30512 10216 1248/ 15/08 16104
10008 2//// 3//// 4421/ 50030 60003 44618 00000
10010 2//// 3//// 4553/ 50630 60038 31819 29743
10011 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 41719 00000
10014 2//// 3//// 4412/ 50100 60012 14712 03200
99999
USSPS 32404 15093 10632 18005 44719 21405 20000 41819 0/101 21048
31722 37547 23008 14712 24413
USSPS 21305 15154 08432 21005 45418 01204 23067 32020 57526 24001
42219 0/101 25013 14614 34413
UMAGF 30503 10216 1004/ 15069 1/014 22221 32312
UMAGF 31523 10216 ///// 1500/ 1/008 22122 32223
UCMEO 93001 10215 1800/ 10214 61912 80106 3471/ 346// 113// 20198
10214 61723 81727 31420 11158 1112/ 99999 PLAIN UCMEO 93001 10215
1800/ 10215 60236 81130 2111/ 210// 323// 40748 10215 60148 80154
31821 11158 1112/ 99999 PLAIN
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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