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OK0NAG > SOLAR 05.04.08 23:30l 81 Lines 3417 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Sat, 5 Apr 2008 22:02:03 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Spotless plage Region 989
(S11W67) produced an isolated low-level B-class flare. SOHO/LASCO
images showed a halo CME, first visible in C2 at 05/1626Z. The CME
appeared to be from the back side, based on STEREO Ahead EUVI 195
images and the GOES- 10 X-ray signature. No new active regions were
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels
with a Kp = 6 observed during 05/1500 - 1800Z. ACE measurements
indicated Earth entered a fast solar wind flow from a recurrent
low-latitude coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. Solar wind
velocities increased during the period with a peak of 671 km/sec
detected at 05/1634Z. IMF Bz reached a minimum of -7 nT at 05/1441Z.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day 1 (06
April) with major storm levels possible at high latitudes. Activity
is expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels during days 2
- 3 (07 - 08 April) as coronal hole effects persist.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 071
Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 05 Apr 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 015/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 012/020-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/30/30
Minor storm 25/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
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to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
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