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OK0NAG > SOLAR 03.02.11 23:04l 226 Lines 7425 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1150 (S22W13)
decayed throughout the period. New Region 1152 (S18E11) was numbered
today after producing a B2 x-ray event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare for the next 3 days
(4-6 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was very low throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly unsettled to active with the chance for a
minor storm on day 1 (4 February) due to coronal hole effects in
conjunction with the anticipated arrival of the CME from 30 January.
Conditions are forecast to be mostly unsettled on day 2 (5 February)
before returning to mostly quiet on day 3 (6 February) when coronal
hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 080
Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 03 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 40/10/05
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor storm 45/20/10
Major-severe storm 15/10/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from
address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help,
please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
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