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OK0NAG > SOLAR 01.02.11 11:56l 107 Lines 4044 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: Monthly Ri Report
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
January 2011 : 19.0 (nineteen point zero)
Maximum : 37 on 1 // Minimum : 0 on 14
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for January 2011 :
1.. 37 6.. 19 11.. 17 16.. 14 21.. 23 26.. 17 31.. 14
2.. 33 7.. 24 12.. 15 17.. 19 22.. 22 27.. 14
3.. 32 8.. 17 13.. 9 18.. 22 23.. 23 28.. 9
4.. 33 9.. 22 14.. 0 19.. 18 24.. 20 29.. 10
5.. 25 10.. 18 15.. 8 20.. 20 25.. 21 30.. 13
66 cooperating stations on February 1, 09 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for July 2010 : 16.8 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2010 Aug 17 21 2011 Feb 29 53 2011 Aug 45 79
Sep 18 27 Mar 31 57 Sep 48 82
Oct 20 33 Apr 34 61 Oct 51 85
Nov 22 38 May 37 66 Nov 54 88
Dec 24 43 Jun 40 70 Dec 57 91
2011 Jan 27 48 Jul 42 74 2012 Jan 59 93
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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