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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Fri, 4 Apr 2008 22:02:06 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Apr 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Spotless plage Region 989
(S11W54) produced isolated B-class subflares. No new regions were
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 989.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Field
activity increased to active levels during 04/1800 - 2100Z due to
increased solar wind velocities and IMF magnitude combined with
periods of southward IMF Bz. ACE signatures indicated Earth entered
the co-rotating interaction region between slow and fast solar wind
flows. Velocities increased to 507 km/sec near the close of the
summary period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was high during most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at active levels during days 1 - 2 (05 - 06 April)
with minor to major storm periods at high latitudes due to coronal
hole effects. Field activity is expected to decrease to unsettled
levels on day 3 (07 April) with active to minor storm periods at
high latitudes as coronal hole effects decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 073
Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 04 Apr 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 015/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/25
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/50/30
Minor storm 25/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
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